Democrats Trying to Impeach Trump Would Make Terrible Hedge Fund Managers

The bell-shaped Normal Distribution Curve was developed by mathematicians in the early 1800s and is used today by hedge fund managers to help guide them in allocating funds among various investment opportunities.  Hedge fund managers are typically paid 20% of any gains they produce over and above an agreed upon rate of return, so they are incentivized to choose investments on the very far edges of the bell-shaped curve, where the high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities tend to cluster.

Successful hedge fund managers understand the danger in holding on to a failing investment.  They use a self-correcting feedback system, which clearly identifies losing investments in a timely manner, so they can be sold before the damage gets to be severe.  The discipline to employ and continually refine a world-class feedback system is crucial for having a long and successful career.  If a manager has two or three bad years in a row, many of his investors are apt to cash out, greatly reducing the manager's annual income.  If the manager can't turn things around with substantial positive returns, it's likely the business will soon fail and be closed.

Hedge fund managers are a great example of the great risks and great rewards possible for individuals who choose life on the tail end of the bell-shaped curve.  Being a successful hedge fund manager requires a simultaneous focus on many different risks, including a changing investment landscape, possible major market bubbles and crashes, changes in regulations, loss of key personnel, and so on.  If a manager is skilled enough to handle all of these challenges year in and year out, he is likely to become a multi-millionaire.

In contrast, most Americans choose jobs that may have relatively mediocre pay but come with a large degree of job security, indicating they have chosen a life in the middle of the bell-shaped curve.  Life for these Americans is fairly predictable, and though they aren't likely to become multi-millionaires, they do tend to be somewhat satisfied with their jobs and their prospects for a comfortable retirement.  The self-correcting feedback system required for this life is relatively simple and straightforward: work hard, obey the law, exercise regularly, eat right, control spending, and save at least 10% of your income.

So what happens when someone chooses the high-risk, high-reward life on the tail but fails to implement a first-class feedback system?  We can answer this by looking at the radical left Democrats in America, whose desire to end Donald Trump's presidency is all-consuming.  These Dems, along with a complaisant media, lit a bonfire to consume and destroy Trump before he even took office.  Their intensely felt differences with Trump are not based on simple logic or stark policy differences, but instead seem to stem largely from antipathy.  How many countless times has Trump tried to do or say exactly what Obama or some other prominent Dem did or said just a few years ago, only to be met with a barrage of derisive hate and anger?  There appears to be little if any self-awareness among the Dems of how often and how loudly they are denouncing Trump for the very same positions they endorsed not so long ago.  Indeed, it appears that the Dems are acting without the benefit of any sort of self-correcting feedback system.

With the 2020 election right around the corner, the Dems understand they are running out of time to remove Trump, so they have launched their ill advised, hapless "impeachment" inquiry.  So far, no particular "high crime" has been identified, nor has the president received due process.  Due process has been part of our legal tradition since it was written into the Magna Carta of 1215, but apparently, the Dems have decided that destroying such a foundational legal principle is OK if it might help to get rid of Trump.  Dems have designed the impeachment hearings to have just the tiniest sliver of genuine Republican involvement, ignoring Alexander Hamilton's warning about abuse of the impeachment process in Federalist No. 65: "There will always be the greatest danger that the decision will be regulated more by the comparative strength of parties, than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt."

The lack of contextual awareness exhibited by the Dems pushing forward this "impeachment" process makes me wonder how they got here.  I believe they are focused solely on the potential slot-machine million-dollar payout of bye-bye President Trump, without considering the consequences if they fail.  The Dems' biggest miscalculation was to limit their feedback system to include only the loudest of like-minded radical leftists, whether they be Democrats in Congress, media figures, or entertainment luminaries, most of whom seem willing to do anything to remove Trump.  But since impeachment is a political process, Trump will go only if the majority of the American people demand it.  What Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff have missed is that most Americans are unwilling to remove a president over a phone call, and most Americans will agree that investigating corruption at the highest levels of government is a good and sometimes necessary thing.

At this point, the impeachment inquiry resembles a merry-go-round, with lots of beautiful props and flashing lights, all going around in a circle without end, eminently attractive to everyone seven years old and younger. The Dems and media orchestrating this merry-go-round believe that somehow, if they just keep merry-go-rounding long enough, America will become so mesmerized that its people will demand Trump's removal from office.

Is this any way to run a country, to grow a political party's influence and power, to woo Americans to choose the Dems to lead them toward a better life?  Or are the Dems unwittingly showing us their true colors?  Maybe the Dems and media don't care much for fairness, but America does.  Maybe they don't care so much for the Constitution, but America does.  Maybe the Dems honestly think America despises Trump as much as the Left does, but America doesn't.  Instead of offering a sound plan to improve life in America, instead of passing much needed legislation, instead of being about the business of helping America, the Dems have chosen a path of failure with their sham "impeachment" process, likely giving Trump four more years as president, along with conservative majorities in both the House and Senate.

One wonders what will happen when the 2020 election is over.  Will the Dems be angry with themselves, or will be they be angry at American voters for acting like adults instead of seven-year-olds?

Graphic credit: M.W. Toews

The bell-shaped Normal Distribution Curve was developed by mathematicians in the early 1800s and is used today by hedge fund managers to help guide them in allocating funds among various investment opportunities.  Hedge fund managers are typically paid 20% of any gains they produce over and above an agreed upon rate of return, so they are incentivized to choose investments on the very far edges of the bell-shaped curve, where the high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities tend to cluster.

Successful hedge fund managers understand the danger in holding on to a failing investment.  They use a self-correcting feedback system, which clearly identifies losing investments in a timely manner, so they can be sold before the damage gets to be severe.  The discipline to employ and continually refine a world-class feedback system is crucial for having a long and successful career.  If a manager has two or three bad years in a row, many of his investors are apt to cash out, greatly reducing the manager's annual income.  If the manager can't turn things around with substantial positive returns, it's likely the business will soon fail and be closed.

Hedge fund managers are a great example of the great risks and great rewards possible for individuals who choose life on the tail end of the bell-shaped curve.  Being a successful hedge fund manager requires a simultaneous focus on many different risks, including a changing investment landscape, possible major market bubbles and crashes, changes in regulations, loss of key personnel, and so on.  If a manager is skilled enough to handle all of these challenges year in and year out, he is likely to become a multi-millionaire.

In contrast, most Americans choose jobs that may have relatively mediocre pay but come with a large degree of job security, indicating they have chosen a life in the middle of the bell-shaped curve.  Life for these Americans is fairly predictable, and though they aren't likely to become multi-millionaires, they do tend to be somewhat satisfied with their jobs and their prospects for a comfortable retirement.  The self-correcting feedback system required for this life is relatively simple and straightforward: work hard, obey the law, exercise regularly, eat right, control spending, and save at least 10% of your income.

So what happens when someone chooses the high-risk, high-reward life on the tail but fails to implement a first-class feedback system?  We can answer this by looking at the radical left Democrats in America, whose desire to end Donald Trump's presidency is all-consuming.  These Dems, along with a complaisant media, lit a bonfire to consume and destroy Trump before he even took office.  Their intensely felt differences with Trump are not based on simple logic or stark policy differences, but instead seem to stem largely from antipathy.  How many countless times has Trump tried to do or say exactly what Obama or some other prominent Dem did or said just a few years ago, only to be met with a barrage of derisive hate and anger?  There appears to be little if any self-awareness among the Dems of how often and how loudly they are denouncing Trump for the very same positions they endorsed not so long ago.  Indeed, it appears that the Dems are acting without the benefit of any sort of self-correcting feedback system.

With the 2020 election right around the corner, the Dems understand they are running out of time to remove Trump, so they have launched their ill advised, hapless "impeachment" inquiry.  So far, no particular "high crime" has been identified, nor has the president received due process.  Due process has been part of our legal tradition since it was written into the Magna Carta of 1215, but apparently, the Dems have decided that destroying such a foundational legal principle is OK if it might help to get rid of Trump.  Dems have designed the impeachment hearings to have just the tiniest sliver of genuine Republican involvement, ignoring Alexander Hamilton's warning about abuse of the impeachment process in Federalist No. 65: "There will always be the greatest danger that the decision will be regulated more by the comparative strength of parties, than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt."

The lack of contextual awareness exhibited by the Dems pushing forward this "impeachment" process makes me wonder how they got here.  I believe they are focused solely on the potential slot-machine million-dollar payout of bye-bye President Trump, without considering the consequences if they fail.  The Dems' biggest miscalculation was to limit their feedback system to include only the loudest of like-minded radical leftists, whether they be Democrats in Congress, media figures, or entertainment luminaries, most of whom seem willing to do anything to remove Trump.  But since impeachment is a political process, Trump will go only if the majority of the American people demand it.  What Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff have missed is that most Americans are unwilling to remove a president over a phone call, and most Americans will agree that investigating corruption at the highest levels of government is a good and sometimes necessary thing.

At this point, the impeachment inquiry resembles a merry-go-round, with lots of beautiful props and flashing lights, all going around in a circle without end, eminently attractive to everyone seven years old and younger. The Dems and media orchestrating this merry-go-round believe that somehow, if they just keep merry-go-rounding long enough, America will become so mesmerized that its people will demand Trump's removal from office.

Is this any way to run a country, to grow a political party's influence and power, to woo Americans to choose the Dems to lead them toward a better life?  Or are the Dems unwittingly showing us their true colors?  Maybe the Dems and media don't care much for fairness, but America does.  Maybe they don't care so much for the Constitution, but America does.  Maybe the Dems honestly think America despises Trump as much as the Left does, but America doesn't.  Instead of offering a sound plan to improve life in America, instead of passing much needed legislation, instead of being about the business of helping America, the Dems have chosen a path of failure with their sham "impeachment" process, likely giving Trump four more years as president, along with conservative majorities in both the House and Senate.

One wonders what will happen when the 2020 election is over.  Will the Dems be angry with themselves, or will be they be angry at American voters for acting like adults instead of seven-year-olds?

Graphic credit: M.W. Toews