April 6, 2020
How Reliable Are the Coronavirus Numbers?
Any pandemic or epidemic is a complicated process, and the current one is not an exception. Besides all the actual problems (how to treat people, how to organize logistics, how to inform media and so on), there are basic ones: how to measure different aspects of the process. It was always not easy; it is very hard now. Here are some often repeated critical comments about different widely published and discussed indicators. The real number of people with the virus is drastically higher than reported (according to some authors, by a factor of 10), because many people have the virus but were not tested (passed the sickness easily without noticing). The number of available test kits is growing in time, and the number of discovered cases is increasing as a result, which makes data incomparable in dynamics. Quality of test (ability to capture the smaller or higher concentration of viruses in a body) is different from country to country or even from...(Read Full Article)