April 8, 2020
COVID-19: Can We Estimate Infection Speed and Fatalities?
Two characteristics are most important for the evaluation of any pandemic: how fast it spreads and how deadly it is. The first one is characterized, among other parameters, by the reproduction number (R0), which shows how many people on average are infected by one sick person. The second one, the case fatality rate (CFR), shows what percent of infected people will die from the infection. One of the authors had an estimated R0 that showed that the current pandemic started to decline in the second half of March. In that article, the "pool" from which the new cases appear was estimated as an average number for the last 14 days. It will be more precise to recall that a "case" is a result of a particular process. In the majority of cases, people get registered if they have some symptoms of the illness. The interval between catching the virus and getting symptoms is called the incubation period; it...(Read Full Article)